Mariehamn vs TPS — Veikkausliiga result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 12 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 5.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Mariehamn
39%
pick · result
Draw
25%
TPS
36%
Final score
1–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Mariehamn win 38.7% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Mariehamn win. Expected goals 1.33–1.36 against 1–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.9%), 2–1 (9.6%), 1–0 (9.5%). It finished 1–0 — one of them.
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Mariehamn
| 4 Apr | H | vs TPS | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Apr | A | vs SJK | 0–3 | L |
| 18 Apr | H | vs Ilves | 2–2 | D |
| 25 Apr | A | vs Inter Turku | 0–1 | L |
| 2 May | H | vs VPS | 0–1 | L |
TPS
| 4 Apr | A | vs Mariehamn | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Apr | H | vs Lahti | 2–1 | W |
| 18 Apr | H | vs SJK | 2–0 | W |
| 24 Apr | H | vs Gnistan | 1–1 | D |
| 2 May | A | vs Jaro | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Mariehamn (Home · 13 matches) | TPS (Away · 13 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 38.5% | 61.5% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 23.1% | 38.5% |
| Clean sheet | 23.1% | 7.7% |
| Avg goals | 2.23 | 2.38 |
Home stats use Mariehamn's home record; away stats use TPS's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.