KuPS arrive in Mariehamn in considerably better shape, sitting third in the Veikkausliiga table and carrying a five-game away sequence that includes two wins and a draw from their last three on the road. Mariehamn, by contrast, have taken just one point from their last five and have kept no clean sheets at home this season, conceding an average of 1.3 goals per game on their own patch.

Despite the gulf in form, the scoring data suggests this could be a closer, lower-scoring affair than the table positions imply. Both sides show identical BTTS rates of 67% and O2.5 rates of just 33%, well below the Veikkausliiga average of 38%, and neither has managed a clean sheet in the relevant fixture split. Goals look likely to arrive at both ends, but not in abundance.

With no head-to-head history to draw from, form is the clearest guide here, and it firmly points toward KuPS. The visitors look undervalued given Mariehamn's alarming run and defensive fragility.