🇫🇮 Veikkausliiga·Monday, 31 August 2026·16:00

Mariehamn

DLLWW

16:00

12th vs 11th

Jaro

WLLLL

Odds comparison

Market	Pinnacle	Best
Mariehamn	2.30	2.30
Draw	3.63	3.63
Jaro	2.94	2.94

Metis Forecast

model + market

Mariehamn

42%

Draw

26%

Jaro

32%

Mariehamn 1.55 xGexpected goals1.38 xG Jaro

Mariehamn win 42% of the current Metis Forecast.

Both teams score in 60% of simulations.

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (12.2%).

Mariehamn score at least twice in 46%; Jaro in 40%.

1–1 12.2%2–1 9.5%1–0 7.9%1–2 7.4%2–0 6.5%0–0 6.2%

Scoreline distribution

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	6.2	6.1	5.1	2.4	0.9	0.3
1	7.9	12.2	7.4	3.6	1.3	0.5
2	6.5	9.5	6.0	2.6	1.0	0.4
3	3.2	4.6	3.4	1.4	0.5	0.2
4	1.2	1.7	1.2	0.6	0.2	0.1
5+	0.4	0.7	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0

rows = Mariehamn goals · columns = Jaro goals · % of simulations

Match outcomes

Both teams score60%

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals56%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Over 4.5 goals17%

Mariehamn clean sheet25%

Jaro clean sheet21%

Mariehamn score 2+46%

Jaro score 2+40%

Mariehamn score 3+20%

Model vs market

Source	Mariehamn	Draw	Jaro
Raw Metis model	37%	27%	36%
Market (de-vigged)	42%	26%	32%
Metis Forecast	42%	26%	32%

The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.

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Recent form

Mariehamn

4 Apr	H	vs TPS	1–1	D
10 Apr	A	vs SJK	0–3	L
18 Apr	H	vs Ilves	2–2	D
25 Apr	A	vs Inter Turku	0–1	L
2 May	H	vs VPS	0–1	L

Jaro

4 Apr	H	vs Lahti	0–1	L
10 Apr	A	vs VPS	0–0	D
18 Apr	H	vs KuPS	1–1	D
24 Apr	A	vs SJK	1–1	D
2 May	H	vs TPS	2–2	D

Head to head

23 May 26

JarovsMariehamn

3 – 0

Mariehamn: 0W 0D 1L in last 1

Model context

Stat	Mariehamn (Home)	Jaro (Away)
BTTS rate	40.0%	30.0%
Over 2.5 rate	30.0%	60.0%
Clean sheet	10.0%	10.0%
Avg goals	2.40	3.00

Home stats use Mariehamn's home record; away stats use Jaro's away record this season.

Mariehamn →Jaro →🇫🇮 Veikkausliiga standings & fixtures