Lahti vs Mariehamn — Veikkausliiga result and pre-match forecast, Tuesday, 8 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 27.8 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Lahti
62%
pick · result
Draw
22%
Mariehamn
16%
Final score
2–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Lahti win 62.0% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Lahti win. Expected goals 2.08–0.96 against 2–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (10.6%), 2–0 (10.3%), 2–1 (9.8%). It finished 2–1 — one of them.
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Lahti
| 4 Apr | A | vs Jaro | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Apr | A | vs TPS | 1–2 | L |
| 18 Apr | H | vs Inter Turku | 0–2 | L |
| 25 Apr | H | vs AC Oulu | 2–1 | W |
| 4 May | A | vs HJK | 0–1 | L |
Mariehamn
| 4 Apr | H | vs TPS | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Apr | A | vs SJK | 0–3 | L |
| 18 Apr | H | vs Ilves | 2–2 | D |
| 25 Apr | A | vs Inter Turku | 0–1 | L |
| 2 May | H | vs VPS | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Lahti (Home · 14 matches) | Mariehamn (Away · 14 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 57.1% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 42.9% | 64.3% |
| Clean sheet | 35.7% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.71 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Lahti's home record; away stats use Mariehamn's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.