Lahti head into this mid-table Veikkausliiga clash in patchy form, winning two of their last five but leaking goals at home all season, conceding an average of 1.5 per game without keeping a single clean sheet. Mariehamn arrive in worse shape, winless in their last five away from home and yet to score a single away goal this campaign, which is a striking figure even by the standards of a struggling side.

The BTTS angle is where this gets interesting. Mariehamn's away BTTS sits at 0%, well below the league average of 52%, suggesting their matches on the road tend to be low-scoring, one-sided affairs rather than open exchanges. Lahti's home games have also been fairly contained, averaging just 1.0 scored per game.

With Mariehamn offering so little attacking threat on their travels, this looks tighter on the scoresheet than the form table might imply, and the visitors are capable of keeping it close despite their struggles.