KuPS vs HJK — Veikkausliiga result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 13 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 27.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
KuPS
44%
top pick
Draw
27%
result
HJK
28%
Final score
0–0
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 27.2% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a KuPS win. Expected goals 1.72–1.32 against 0–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.6%), 2–1 (8.7%), 1–2 (7.3%). It finished 0–0.
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KuPS
| 4 Apr | A | vs Ilves | 3–1 | W |
| 11 Apr | H | vs Gnistan | 1–0 | W |
| 18 Apr | A | vs Jaro | 1–1 | D |
| 22 Apr | H | vs AC Oulu | 3–2 | W |
| 26 Apr | H | vs HJK | 1–1 | D |
HJK
| 4 Apr | H | vs SJK | 3–0 | W |
| 11 Apr | H | vs AC Oulu | 0–1 | L |
| 18 Apr | A | vs Gnistan | 3–0 | W |
| 26 Apr | A | vs KuPS | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Apr | A | vs Inter Turku | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | KuPS (Home · 15 matches) | HJK (Away · 16 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 40.0% | 56.2% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 31.2% |
| Avg goals | 2.67 | 3.12 |
Home stats use KuPS's home record; away stats use HJK's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.