KuPS vs Gnistan — Veikkausliiga forecast, Thursday, 29 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
KuPS
67%
Draw
19%
Gnistan
14%
Expected goals
2.02–0.89
KuPS · Gnistan
KuPS win 67% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–0 (11.8%), 2–0 (11.8%), 2–1 (11.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 52% of simulations.
Those three cover 35% of outcomes; the other 65% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
KuPS score at least twice in 61%; Gnistan in 22%.
Scoreline distribution
Gnistan goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 9.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.8 | 11.7 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: KuPS goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 61% | 24% | 14% |
| Market reference | 67% | 19% | 14% |
| Metis Forecast | 67% | 19% | 14% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| KuPS | 1.45 |
| Draw | 4.72 |
| Gnistan | 6.47 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 26 Oct · 04:41 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
KuPS
| 4 Apr | A | vs Ilves | 3–1 | W |
| 11 Apr | H | vs Gnistan | 1–0 | W |
| 18 Apr | A | vs Jaro | 1–1 | D |
| 22 Apr | H | vs AC Oulu | 3–2 | W |
| 26 Apr | H | vs HJK | 1–1 | D |
Gnistan
| 4 Apr | H | vs AC Oulu | 1–5 | L |
| 11 Apr | A | vs KuPS | 0–1 | L |
| 18 Apr | H | vs HJK | 0–3 | L |
| 24 Apr | A | vs TPS | 1–1 | D |
| 5 May | H | vs Inter Turku | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
| 8 Sept 26 | GnistanvsKuPS | 1 – 1 |
| 1 Aug 26 | GnistanvsKuPS | 0 – 1 |
| 11 Apr 26 | KuPSvsGnistan | 1 – 0 |
KuPS: 2W 1D 0L in last 3
Model context
| Stat | KuPS (Home · 14 matches) | Gnistan (Away · 14 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 57.1% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 42.9% | 42.9% |
| Clean sheet | 35.7% | 14.3% |
| Avg goals | 2.71 | 2.50 |
Home stats use KuPS's home record; away stats use Gnistan's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.