Jaro vs SJK — Veikkausliiga result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 12 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 7.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Jaro
27%
Draw
27%
result
SJK
47%
top pick
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 26.6% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a SJK win. Expected goals 1.16–1.54 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.7%), 0–1 (10.2%), 1–2 (10.2%). It finished 1–1 — one of them.
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Jaro
| 4 Apr | H | vs Lahti | 0–1 | L |
| 10 Apr | A | vs VPS | 0–0 | D |
| 18 Apr | H | vs KuPS | 1–1 | D |
| 24 Apr | A | vs SJK | 1–1 | D |
| 2 May | H | vs TPS | 2–2 | D |
SJK
| 8 Sept | A | vs Turku PS | 0–0 | D |
| 4 Apr | A | vs HJK | 0–3 | L |
| 10 Apr | H | vs Mariehamn | 3–0 | W |
| 18 Apr | A | vs TPS | 0–2 | L |
| 24 Apr | H | vs Jaro | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Jaro (Home · 14 matches) | SJK (Away · 14 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 64.3% | 42.9% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 42.9% | 35.7% |
| Clean sheet | 21.4% | 21.4% |
| Avg goals | 2.50 | 2.21 |
Home stats use Jaro's home record; away stats use SJK's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.