Jaro's home form is concerning heading into this fixture, with just one win in five matches and a leaky defence conceding 1.7 per game. Ilves arrive in better shape with two wins in their last three outings, though they've shown defensive vulnerabilities on the road—conceding 2.7 goals away this season. The visitors also carry a clean sheet problem, failing to keep one on the road all term.

The attacking metrics here stand out. Ilves away matches feature BTTS in 86% of games and Over 2.5 in 86%, both significantly above the league average of 53% and 46% respectively. Jaro's home matches hit BTTS 67% of the time. This looks like a fixture primed for goals, with the visitors' defensive issues and Jaro's need to break their home slump creating a recipe for an open encounter. The data suggests this will be considerably more productive than the league baseline.