Inter Turku vs KuPS — Veikkausliiga forecast, Sunday, 11 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Inter Turku
44%
Draw
30%
KuPS
26%
Expected goals
1.41–1.09
Inter Turku · KuPS
Inter Turku win 44% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (14.3%), 1–0 (11.0%), 2–1 (9.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 52% of simulations.
Those three cover 35% of outcomes; the other 65% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Inter Turku win is 1–0 (11.0%).
Inter Turku score at least twice in 42%; KuPS in 29%.
Scoreline distribution
KuPS goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 14.3 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Inter Turku goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 39% | 29% | 32% |
| Market reference | 44% | 30% | 26% |
| Metis Forecast | 44% | 30% | 26% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Inter Turku
| 4 Apr | H | vs VPS | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Apr | H | vs Ilves | 2–1 | W |
| 18 Apr | A | vs Lahti | 2–0 | W |
| 25 Apr | H | vs Mariehamn | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Apr | H | vs HJK | 1–1 | D |
KuPS
| 4 Apr | A | vs Ilves | 3–1 | W |
| 11 Apr | H | vs Gnistan | 1–0 | W |
| 18 Apr | A | vs Jaro | 1–1 | D |
| 22 Apr | H | vs AC Oulu | 3–2 | W |
| 26 Apr | H | vs HJK | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 31 Aug 26 | Inter TurkuvsKuPS | 1 – 0 |
| 30 May 26 | KuPSvsInter Turku | 1 – 1 |
Inter Turku: 1W 1D 0L in last 2
Model context
| Stat | Inter Turku (Home · 12 matches) | KuPS (Away · 13 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 41.7% | 53.8% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 25.0% | 30.8% |
| Clean sheet | 58.3% | 30.8% |
| Avg goals | 1.50 | 2.31 |
Home stats use Inter Turku's home record; away stats use KuPS's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.