Inter Turku vs HJK — Veikkausliiga forecast, Thursday, 29 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Inter Turku
42%
Draw
27%
HJK
30%
Expected goals
1.43–1.19
Inter Turku · HJK
Inter Turku win 42% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.0%), 1–0 (9.7%), 2–1 (9.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Inter Turku win is 1–0 (9.7%).
Inter Turku score at least twice in 42%; HJK in 33%.
Scoreline distribution
HJK goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 13.0 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Inter Turku goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 41% | 28% | 31% |
| Market reference | 42% | 27% | 30% |
| Metis Forecast | 42% | 27% | 30% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Inter Turku | 2.27 |
| Draw | 3.46 |
| HJK | 3.12 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 26 Oct · 04:41 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Inter Turku
| 4 Apr | H | vs VPS | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Apr | H | vs Ilves | 2–1 | W |
| 18 Apr | A | vs Lahti | 2–0 | W |
| 25 Apr | H | vs Mariehamn | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Apr | H | vs HJK | 1–1 | D |
HJK
| 4 Apr | H | vs SJK | 3–0 | W |
| 11 Apr | H | vs AC Oulu | 0–1 | L |
| 18 Apr | A | vs Gnistan | 3–0 | W |
| 26 Apr | A | vs KuPS | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Apr | A | vs Inter Turku | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 9 Sept 26 | HJKvsInter Turku | 2 – 1 |
| 17 Jun 26 | HJKvsInter Turku | 3 – 3 |
| 29 Apr 26 | Inter TurkuvsHJK | 1 – 1 |
Inter Turku: 0W 2D 1L in last 3
Model context
| Stat | Inter Turku (Home · 14 matches) | HJK (Away · 14 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 42.9% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 28.6% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 57.1% | 28.6% |
| Avg goals | 1.57 | 2.86 |
Home stats use Inter Turku's home record; away stats use HJK's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.