Ilves vs Lahti — Veikkausliiga result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 12 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 7.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Ilves
41%
pick · result
Draw
26%
Lahti
33%
Final score
3–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave an Ilves win 40.7% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Ilves win. Expected goals 1.54–1.28 against 3–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.3%), 1–2 (8.8%), 0–1 (7.9%). It finished 3–1.
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Ilves
| 4 Apr | H | vs KuPS | 1–3 | L |
| 11 Apr | A | vs Inter Turku | 1–2 | L |
| 18 Apr | A | vs Mariehamn | 2–2 | D |
| 24 Apr | A | vs VPS | 2–3 | L |
| 2 May | A | vs SJK | 1–1 | D |
Lahti
| 4 Apr | A | vs Jaro | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Apr | A | vs TPS | 1–2 | L |
| 18 Apr | H | vs Inter Turku | 0–2 | L |
| 25 Apr | H | vs AC Oulu | 2–1 | W |
| 4 May | A | vs HJK | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Ilves (Home · 14 matches) | Lahti (Away · 13 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 35.7% | 38.5% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 42.9% | 30.8% |
| Clean sheet | 57.1% | 30.8% |
| Avg goals | 2.57 | 1.77 |
Home stats use Ilves's home record; away stats use Lahti's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.