Ilves vs Jaro — Veikkausliiga result and pre-match forecast, Tuesday, 8 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 27.8 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Ilves
64%
pick · result
Draw
20%
Jaro
16%
Final score
2–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave an Ilves win 63.6% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Ilves win. Expected goals 2.15–0.95 against 2–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–0 (10.4%), 1–1 (9.7%), 2–1 (9.5%). It finished 2–0 — one of them.
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Ilves
| 4 Apr | H | vs KuPS | 1–3 | L |
| 11 Apr | A | vs Inter Turku | 1–2 | L |
| 18 Apr | A | vs Mariehamn | 2–2 | D |
| 24 Apr | A | vs VPS | 2–3 | L |
| 2 May | A | vs SJK | 1–1 | D |
Jaro
| 4 Apr | H | vs Lahti | 0–1 | L |
| 10 Apr | A | vs VPS | 0–0 | D |
| 18 Apr | H | vs KuPS | 1–1 | D |
| 24 Apr | A | vs SJK | 1–1 | D |
| 2 May | H | vs TPS | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Ilves (Home · 14 matches) | Jaro (Away · 15 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 35.7% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 42.9% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 57.1% | 13.3% |
| Avg goals | 2.57 | 2.60 |
Home stats use Ilves's home record; away stats use Jaro's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.