🇫🇮 Veikkausliiga·Monday, 31 August 2026·16:00

Ilves

WLWLL

16:00

9th vs 4th

HJK

WLWWL

Odds comparison

Market	Pinnacle	Best
Ilves	3.76	3.76
Draw	3.98	3.98
HJK	1.87	1.87

Metis Forecast

model + market

Ilves

25%

Draw

24%

HJK

52%

Ilves 1.37 xGexpected goals1.80 xG HJK

HJK win 52% of the current Metis Forecast.

Both teams score in 64% of simulations.

The most likely scoreline is 1–2 (12.2%).

Ilves score at least twice in 39%; HJK in 56%.

1–2 12.2%1–1 10.6%0–1 8.4%0–2 7.2%2–2 6.2%1–3 6.0%

Scoreline distribution

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	4.7	8.4	7.2	3.5	1.3	0.5
1	3.7	10.6	12.1	6.0	2.2	0.9
2	3.6	5.3	6.2	5.1	1.9	0.7
3	2.0	3.0	2.2	1.7	1.1	0.4
4	0.9	1.3	0.9	0.5	0.3	0.2
5+	0.4	0.6	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0

rows = Ilves goals · columns = HJK goals · % of simulations

Match outcomes

Both teams score64%

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Over 4.5 goals22%

Ilves clean sheet15%

HJK clean sheet26%

Ilves score 2+39%

HJK score 2+56%

Ilves score 3+16%

Model vs market

Source	Ilves	Draw	HJK
Raw Metis model	42%	25%	33%
Market (de-vigged)	25%	24%	52%
Metis Forecast	25%	24%	52%

The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.

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Recent form

Ilves

4 Apr	H	vs KuPS	1–3	L
11 Apr	A	vs Inter Turku	1–2	L
18 Apr	A	vs Mariehamn	2–2	D
24 Apr	A	vs VPS	2–3	L
2 May	A	vs SJK	1–1	D

HJK

4 Apr	H	vs SJK	3–0	W
11 Apr	H	vs AC Oulu	0–1	L
18 Apr	A	vs Gnistan	3–0	W
26 Apr	A	vs KuPS	1–1	D
29 Apr	A	vs Inter Turku	1–1	D

Head to head

16 May 26

HJKvsIlves

2 – 2

Ilves: 0W 1D 0L in last 1

Model context

Stat	Ilves (Home)	HJK (Away)
BTTS rate	30.0%	40.0%
Over 2.5 rate	40.0%	50.0%
Clean sheet	60.0%	30.0%
Avg goals	2.50	2.80

Home stats use Ilves's home record; away stats use HJK's away record this season.

Ilves →HJK →🇫🇮 Veikkausliiga standings & fixtures