Ilves vs HJK — Veikkausliiga result and pre-match forecast, Monday, 31 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 12.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Ilves
25%
Draw
23%
HJK
52%
pick · result
Final score
1–2
Top pick landed
Metis gave a HJK win 52.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a HJK win. Expected goals 1.29–1.73 against 1–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–2 (12.6%), 1–1 (10.7%), 0–1 (9.8%). It finished 1–2 — one of them.
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Ilves
| 4 Apr | H | vs KuPS | 1–3 | L |
| 11 Apr | A | vs Inter Turku | 1–2 | L |
| 18 Apr | A | vs Mariehamn | 2–2 | D |
| 24 Apr | A | vs VPS | 2–3 | L |
| 2 May | A | vs SJK | 1–1 | D |
HJK
| 4 Apr | H | vs SJK | 3–0 | W |
| 11 Apr | H | vs AC Oulu | 0–1 | L |
| 18 Apr | A | vs Gnistan | 3–0 | W |
| 26 Apr | A | vs KuPS | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Apr | A | vs Inter Turku | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Ilves (Home · 13 matches) | HJK (Away · 13 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 38.5% | 46.2% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 46.2% | 46.2% |
| Clean sheet | 53.8% | 30.8% |
| Avg goals | 2.62 | 2.54 |
Home stats use Ilves's home record; away stats use HJK's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.