HJK sit fifth but their home record tells a more commanding story. At home this season they have kept a clean sheet in half their matches, conceding just 0.5 goals per game on average, and remarkably their BTTS rate of 0% sits well below the league average of 52%. They are a team that tends to control games on their own ground and keep the door firmly shut.

Lahti arrive in decent shape after back-to-back results of W and W to close their recent run, though inconsistency away from home is a concern with two losses also in that stretch. They average a goal per away game but also concede at the same rate, suggesting they are more open on the road than HJK will be comfortable with.

With no head-to-head history to lean on, the data points to a low-scoring, tight affair. HJK's defensive solidity at home makes this look like a match that plays into the hosts' hands.