HJK vs KuPS — Veikkausliiga forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
HJK
53%
Draw
25%
KuPS
22%
Expected goals
1.65–1.06
HJK · KuPS
HJK win 53% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.9%), 1–0 (11.3%), 2–1 (10.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
Those three cover 34% of outcomes; the other 66% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely HJK win is 1–0 (11.3%).
HJK score at least twice in 50%; KuPS in 28%.
Scoreline distribution
KuPS goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.9 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 10.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: HJK goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 44% | 27% | 28% |
| Market reference | 53% | 25% | 22% |
| Metis Forecast | 53% | 25% | 22% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| HJK | 1.83 |
| Draw | 3.77 |
| KuPS | 4.18 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Recent form
HJK
| 4 Apr | H | vs SJK | 3–0 | W |
| 11 Apr | H | vs AC Oulu | 0–1 | L |
| 18 Apr | A | vs Gnistan | 3–0 | W |
| 26 Apr | A | vs KuPS | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Apr | A | vs Inter Turku | 1–1 | D |
KuPS
| 4 Apr | A | vs Ilves | 3–1 | W |
| 11 Apr | H | vs Gnistan | 1–0 | W |
| 18 Apr | A | vs Jaro | 1–1 | D |
| 22 Apr | H | vs AC Oulu | 3–2 | W |
| 26 Apr | H | vs HJK | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 13 Sept 26 | KuPSvsHJK | 0 – 0 |
| 27 Jun 26 | HJKvsKuPS | 0 – 4 |
| 26 Apr 26 | KuPSvsHJK | 1 – 1 |
HJK: 0W 2D 1L in last 3
Model context
| Stat | HJK (Home · 14 matches) | KuPS (Away · 14 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 35.7% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 71.4% | 28.6% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 28.6% |
| Avg goals | 3.21 | 2.21 |
Home stats use HJK's home record; away stats use KuPS's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.