🇫🇮 Veikkausliiga·Monday, 31 August 2026·16:00

Gnistan

WLDWW

16:00

3rd vs 7th

TPS

LWDWD

Odds comparison

Market	Pinnacle	Best
Gnistan	1.89	1.89
Draw	3.98	3.98
TPS	3.69	3.69

Metis Forecast

model + market

Gnistan

51%

Draw

24%

TPS

25%

Gnistan 1.76 xGexpected goals1.34 xG TPS

Gnistan win 51% of the current Metis Forecast.

Both teams score in 63% of simulations.

The most likely scoreline is 2–1 (12.0%).

Gnistan score at least twice in 54%; TPS in 38%.

2–1 12.0%1–1 10.8%1–0 8.7%2–0 7.3%2–2 5.9%3–1 5.9%

Scoreline distribution

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	5.0	4.0	3.7	2.0	0.8	0.4
1	8.7	10.7	5.5	3.0	1.2	0.5
2	7.4	12.0	6.0	2.2	0.9	0.4
3	3.6	5.9	4.8	1.6	0.4	0.2
4	1.3	2.1	1.8	1.0	0.2	0.1
5+	0.5	0.8	0.7	0.4	0.1	0.0

rows = Gnistan goals · columns = TPS goals · % of simulations

Match outcomes

Both teams score63%

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals60%

Over 3.5 goals37%

Over 4.5 goals20%

Gnistan clean sheet26%

TPS clean sheet16%

Gnistan score 2+54%

TPS score 2+38%

Gnistan score 3+25%

Model vs market

Source	Gnistan	Draw	TPS
Raw Metis model	33%	25%	41%
Market (de-vigged)	51%	24%	25%
Metis Forecast	51%	24%	25%

The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.

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Recent form

Gnistan

4 Apr	H	vs AC Oulu	1–5	L
11 Apr	A	vs KuPS	0–1	L
18 Apr	H	vs HJK	0–3	L
24 Apr	A	vs TPS	1–1	D
5 May	H	vs Inter Turku	2–0	W

TPS

4 Apr	A	vs Mariehamn	1–1	D
10 Apr	H	vs Lahti	2–1	W
18 Apr	H	vs SJK	2–0	W
24 Apr	H	vs Gnistan	1–1	D
2 May	A	vs Jaro	2–2	D

Head to head

24 Apr 26

TPSvsGnistan

1 – 1

Gnistan: 0W 1D 0L in last 1

Model context

Stat	Gnistan (Home)	TPS (Away)
BTTS rate	50.0%	60.0%
Over 2.5 rate	60.0%	40.0%
Clean sheet	30.0%	10.0%
Avg goals	3.60	2.20

Home stats use Gnistan's home record; away stats use TPS's away record this season.

Gnistan →TPS →🇫🇮 Veikkausliiga standings & fixtures