Gnistan vs TPS — Veikkausliiga result and pre-match forecast, Monday, 31 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 12.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Gnistan
51%
top pick
Draw
24%
result
TPS
25%
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 23.7% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Gnistan win. Expected goals 1.75–1.33 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–1 (12.1%), 1–1 (10.9%), 1–0 (8.9%). It finished 1–1 — one of them.
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Gnistan
| 4 Apr | H | vs AC Oulu | 1–5 | L |
| 11 Apr | A | vs KuPS | 0–1 | L |
| 18 Apr | H | vs HJK | 0–3 | L |
| 24 Apr | A | vs TPS | 1–1 | D |
| 5 May | H | vs Inter Turku | 2–0 | W |
TPS
| 4 Apr | A | vs Mariehamn | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Apr | H | vs Lahti | 2–1 | W |
| 18 Apr | H | vs SJK | 2–0 | W |
| 24 Apr | H | vs Gnistan | 1–1 | D |
| 2 May | A | vs Jaro | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Gnistan (Home · 14 matches) | TPS (Away · 12 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 57.1% | 58.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 42.9% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 28.6% | 8.3% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 2.08 |
Home stats use Gnistan's home record; away stats use TPS's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.