Gnistan vs HJK — Veikkausliiga result and pre-match forecast, Friday, 18 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Independent model — no market priceFrozen as published · 12.5 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Gnistan
28%
Draw
26%
result
HJK
46%
top pick
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 26.2% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a HJK win. Expected goals 1.25–1.64 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.3%), 1–2 (9.3%), 0–1 (8.3%). It finished 1–1 — one of them.
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Gnistan
| 4 Apr | H | vs AC Oulu | 1–5 | L |
| 11 Apr | A | vs KuPS | 0–1 | L |
| 18 Apr | H | vs HJK | 0–3 | L |
| 24 Apr | A | vs TPS | 1–1 | D |
| 5 May | H | vs Inter Turku | 2–0 | W |
HJK
| 4 Apr | H | vs SJK | 3–0 | W |
| 11 Apr | H | vs AC Oulu | 0–1 | L |
| 18 Apr | A | vs Gnistan | 3–0 | W |
| 26 Apr | A | vs KuPS | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Apr | A | vs Inter Turku | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Gnistan (Home · 15 matches) | HJK (Away · 16 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 46.7% | 56.2% |
| Clean sheet | 26.7% | 31.2% |
| Avg goals | 3.27 | 3.12 |
Home stats use Gnistan's home record; away stats use HJK's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.