Gnistan vs AC Oulu — Veikkausliiga forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Independent model — no market priceModel updated
Gnistan
47%
Draw
27%
AC Oulu
26%
Expected goals
1.57–1.10
Gnistan · AC Oulu
Gnistan win 47% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.9%), 1–0 (10.0%), 2–1 (9.4%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Gnistan win is 1–0 (10.0%).
Gnistan score at least twice in 46%; AC Oulu in 30%.
Scoreline distribution
AC Oulu goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.9 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Gnistan goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Gnistan | 2.12 |
| Draw | 3.52 |
| AC Oulu | 3.40 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Gnistan
| 4 Apr | H | vs AC Oulu | 1–5 | L |
| 11 Apr | A | vs KuPS | 0–1 | L |
| 18 Apr | H | vs HJK | 0–3 | L |
| 24 Apr | A | vs TPS | 1–1 | D |
| 5 May | H | vs Inter Turku | 2–0 | W |
AC Oulu
| 4 Apr | A | vs Gnistan | 5–1 | W |
| 11 Apr | A | vs HJK | 1–0 | W |
| 18 Apr | H | vs VPS | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Apr | A | vs KuPS | 2–3 | L |
| 25 Apr | A | vs Lahti | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
| 12 Sept 26 | AC OuluvsGnistan | 1 – 2 |
| 18 Jul 26 | AC OuluvsGnistan | 0 – 2 |
| 4 Apr 26 | GnistanvsAC Oulu | 1 – 5 |
Gnistan: 2W 0D 1L in last 3
Model context
| Stat | Gnistan (Home · 14 matches) | AC Oulu (Away · 14 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 57.1% | 42.9% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 42.9% | 42.9% |
| Clean sheet | 28.6% | 35.7% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 2.43 |
Home stats use Gnistan's home record; away stats use AC Oulu's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.