AC Oulu vs HJK — Veikkausliiga forecast, Monday, 12 October 2026
Veikkausliiga·Monday, 12 October 2026·16:00
Metis Forecast
Independent model — no market priceModel updated
AC Oulu
23%
Draw
28%
HJK
50%
Expected goals
0.97–1.53
AC Oulu · HJK
HJK win 50% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.1%), 0–1 (11.6%), 0–2 (9.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 50% of simulations.
Those three cover 34% of outcomes; the other 66% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely HJK win is 0–1 (11.6%).
AC Oulu score at least twice in 25%; HJK in 45%.
Scoreline distribution
HJK goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 11.6 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 13.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: AC Oulu goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Both teams score50%
Over 1.5 goals72%
Over 2.5 goals46%
Over 3.5 goals24%
Over 4.5 goals11%
Team scoring & clean sheets
AC Oulu clean sheet22%
HJK clean sheet38%
AC Oulu score 2+25%
HJK score 2+45%
AC Oulu score 3+7%
HJK score 3+20%
Most likely scores
1–113.1%
0–111.6%
0–29.7%
1–29.3%
0–09.2%
1–07.0%
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
AC Oulu
| 4 Apr | A | vs Gnistan | 5–1 | W |
| 11 Apr | A | vs HJK | 1–0 | W |
| 18 Apr | H | vs VPS | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Apr | A | vs KuPS | 2–3 | L |
| 25 Apr | A | vs Lahti | 1–2 | L |
HJK
| 4 Apr | H | vs SJK | 3–0 | W |
| 11 Apr | H | vs AC Oulu | 0–1 | L |
| 18 Apr | A | vs Gnistan | 3–0 | W |
| 26 Apr | A | vs KuPS | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Apr | A | vs Inter Turku | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 9 Aug 26 | AC OuluvsHJK | 0 – 1 |
| 11 Apr 26 | HJKvsAC Oulu | 0 – 1 |
AC Oulu: 1W 0D 1L in last 2
Model context
| Stat | AC Oulu (Home · 13 matches) | HJK (Away · 13 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 38.5% | 46.2% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 30.8% | 46.2% |
| Clean sheet | 38.5% | 30.8% |
| Avg goals | 1.92 | 2.54 |
Home stats use AC Oulu's home record; away stats use HJK's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.