AC Oulu vs Gnistan — Veikkausliiga result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 12 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 7.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
AC Oulu
41%
top pick
Draw
27%
Gnistan
32%
result
Final score
1–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Gnistan win 32.4% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an AC Oulu win. Expected goals 1.45–1.27 against 1–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.7%), 2–1 (9.0%), 1–0 (8.8%). It finished 1–2.
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AC Oulu
| 4 Apr | A | vs Gnistan | 5–1 | W |
| 11 Apr | A | vs HJK | 1–0 | W |
| 18 Apr | H | vs VPS | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Apr | A | vs KuPS | 2–3 | L |
| 25 Apr | A | vs Lahti | 1–2 | L |
Gnistan
| 4 Apr | H | vs AC Oulu | 1–5 | L |
| 11 Apr | A | vs KuPS | 0–1 | L |
| 18 Apr | H | vs HJK | 0–3 | L |
| 24 Apr | A | vs TPS | 1–1 | D |
| 5 May | H | vs Inter Turku | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | AC Oulu (Home · 16 matches) | Gnistan (Away · 16 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 37.5% | 56.2% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 31.2% | 43.8% |
| Clean sheet | 43.8% | 12.5% |
| Avg goals | 2.12 | 2.75 |
Home stats use AC Oulu's home record; away stats use Gnistan's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.