Zurich vs Luzern — Swiss Super League forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Zurich
38%
Draw
24%
Luzern
38%
Expected goals
1.70–1.75
Zurich · Luzern
Luzern win 38% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.4%), 2–1 (8.4%), 1–2 (7.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 68% of simulations.
Those three cover 27% of outcomes; the other 73% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Zurich score at least twice in 51%; Luzern in 52%.
Scoreline distribution
Luzern goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 10.4 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 8.4 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: Zurich goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 34% | 24% | 42% |
| Market reference | 38% | 24% | 38% |
| Metis Forecast | 38% | 24% | 38% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Zurich | 2.55 |
| Draw | 3.86 |
| Luzern | 2.51 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Zurich
| 26 Jul | A | vs St. Gallen | 1–2 | L |
| 1 Aug | H | vs Servette | 2–1 | W |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Lugano | 0–5 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Basel | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Lausanne | 3–2 | W |
Luzern
| 25 Jul | H | vs Thun | 1–3 | L |
| 2 Aug | A | vs Sion | 0–3 | L |
| 9 Aug | A | vs St. Gallen | 2–2 | D |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Lausanne | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Servette | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Zurich (Home · 5 matches) | Luzern (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 80.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.20 | 3.80 |
Home stats use Zurich's home record; away stats use Luzern's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.