Young Boys vs St. Gallen — Swiss Super League forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Young Boys
54%
Draw
22%
St. Gallen
23%
Expected goals
2.35–1.51
Young Boys · St. Gallen
Young Boys win 54% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (8.6%), 2–1 (8.2%), 2–2 (7.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 71% of simulations.
Those three cover 24% of outcomes; the other 76% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Young Boys win is 2–1 (8.2%).
Young Boys score at least twice in 68%; St. Gallen in 45%.
Scoreline distribution
St. Gallen goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Rows: Young Boys goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 58% | 20% | 22% |
| Market reference | 54% | 22% | 23% |
| Metis Forecast | 54% | 22% | 23% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Young Boys | 1.77 |
| Draw | 4.22 |
| St. Gallen | 3.98 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Young Boys
| 26 Jul | H | vs Sion | 4–2 | W |
| 1 Aug | A | vs Thun | 6–0 | W |
| 8 Aug | A | vs Lausanne | 2–2 | D |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Vaduz | 4–2 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Basel | 3–3 | D |
St. Gallen
| 26 Jul | H | vs Zurich | 2–1 | W |
| 2 Aug | A | vs Vaduz | 3–2 | W |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Luzern | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Thun | 3–4 | L |
| 2 Sept | A | vs Grasshoppers | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Young Boys (Home · 5 matches) | St. Gallen (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 5.80 | 3.60 |
Home stats use Young Boys's home record; away stats use St. Gallen's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.