Young Boys vs Luzern — Swiss Super League result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 5 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 8.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Young Boys
66%
top pick
Draw
18%
result
Luzern
16%
Final score
3–3
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 18.2% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Young Boys win. Expected goals 2.40–1.24 against 3–3 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–1 (10.8%), 3–1 (8.0%), 2–0 (8.0%). It finished 3–3.
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Young Boys
| 26 Jul | H | vs Sion | 4–2 | W |
| 1 Aug | A | vs Thun | 6–0 | W |
| 8 Aug | A | vs Lausanne | 2–2 | D |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Vaduz | 4–2 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Basel | 3–3 | D |
Luzern
| 25 Jul | H | vs Thun | 1–3 | L |
| 2 Aug | A | vs Sion | 0–3 | L |
| 9 Aug | A | vs St. Gallen | 2–2 | D |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Lausanne | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Servette | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Young Boys (Home · 7 matches) | Luzern (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 85.7% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 85.7% | 83.3% |
| Clean sheet | 14.3% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 5.57 | 3.67 |
Home stats use Young Boys's home record; away stats use Luzern's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.