Young Boys vs Basel — Swiss Super League result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 29 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 2.8 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Young Boys
62%
top pick
Draw
21%
result
Basel
18%
Final score
3–3
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 20.6% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Young Boys win. Expected goals 2.14–1.19 against 3–3 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–1 (11.6%), 1–1 (9.2%), 2–0 (8.6%). It finished 3–3.
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Young Boys
| 26 Jul | H | vs Sion | 4–2 | W |
| 1 Aug | A | vs Thun | 6–0 | W |
| 8 Aug | A | vs Lausanne | 2–2 | D |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Vaduz | 4–2 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Basel | 3–3 | D |
Basel
| 25 Jul | A | vs Servette | 1–0 | W |
| 1 Aug | H | vs Lausanne | 0–1 | L |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Thun | 4–2 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Zurich | 2–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Young Boys | 3–3 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Young Boys (Home · 5 matches) | Basel (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 5.80 | 4.00 |
Home stats use Young Boys's home record; away stats use Basel's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.