St. Gallen vs Lugano — Swiss Super League forecast, Sunday, 8 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
St. Gallen
42%
Draw
24%
Lugano
34%
Expected goals
1.66–1.59
St. Gallen · Lugano
St. Gallen win 42% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.8%), 2–1 (10.1%), 1–2 (6.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 65% of simulations.
Those three cover 28% of outcomes; the other 72% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely St. Gallen win is 2–1 (10.1%).
St. Gallen score at least twice in 50%; Lugano in 46%.
Scoreline distribution
Lugano goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.8 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 10.1 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: St. Gallen goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 30% | 24% | 45% |
| Market reference | 42% | 24% | 34% |
| Metis Forecast | 42% | 24% | 34% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| St. Gallen | 2.29 |
| Draw | 3.90 |
| Lugano | 2.83 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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St. Gallen
| 26 Jul | H | vs Zurich | 2–1 | W |
| 2 Aug | A | vs Vaduz | 3–2 | W |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Luzern | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Thun | 3–4 | L |
| 2 Sept | A | vs Grasshoppers | 0–2 | L |
Lugano
| 26 Jul | H | vs Vaduz | 2–1 | W |
| 2 Aug | A | vs Grasshoppers | 4–1 | W |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Zurich | 5–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Sion | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Sept | H | vs Servette | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
| 16 Sept 26 | LuganovsSt. Gallen | 4 – 1 |
St. Gallen: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | St. Gallen (Home · 5 matches) | Lugano (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.60 | 4.20 |
Home stats use St. Gallen's home record; away stats use Lugano's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.