Sion vs Lugano — Swiss Super League result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 30 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 4.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Sion
43%
top pick
Draw
28%
Lugano
30%
result
Final score
1–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Lugano win 29.9% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Sion win. Expected goals 1.59–1.31 against 1–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.0%), 2–1 (9.0%), 1–0 (7.7%). It finished 1–2.
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Sion
| 26 Jul | A | vs Young Boys | 2–4 | L |
| 2 Aug | H | vs Luzern | 3–0 | W |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Vaduz | 3–2 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Lugano | 1–2 | L |
| 3 Sept | A | vs Basel | 2–1 | W |
Lugano
| 26 Jul | H | vs Vaduz | 2–1 | W |
| 2 Aug | A | vs Grasshoppers | 4–1 | W |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Zurich | 5–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Sion | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Sept | H | vs Servette | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Sion (Home · 5 matches) | Lugano (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 80.0% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.60 | 4.00 |
Home stats use Sion's home record; away stats use Lugano's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.