Sion vs Lausanne — Swiss Super League forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Sion
64%
Draw
19%
Lausanne
17%
Expected goals
2.17–1.01
Sion · Lausanne
Sion win 64% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–1 (10.1%), 2–0 (10.1%), 1–1 (9.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Sion score at least twice in 64%; Lausanne in 27%.
Scoreline distribution
Lausanne goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Sion goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 63% | 21% | 16% |
| Market reference | 64% | 19% | 17% |
| Metis Forecast | 64% | 19% | 17% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Sion | 1.51 |
| Draw | 4.74 |
| Lausanne | 5.49 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Sion
| 26 Jul | A | vs Young Boys | 2–4 | L |
| 2 Aug | H | vs Luzern | 3–0 | W |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Vaduz | 3–2 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Lugano | 1–2 | L |
| 3 Sept | A | vs Basel | 2–1 | W |
Lausanne
| 25 Jul | H | vs Grasshoppers | 1–1 | D |
| 1 Aug | A | vs Basel | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Aug | H | vs Young Boys | 2–2 | D |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Luzern | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Zurich | 2–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Sion (Home · 5 matches) | Lausanne (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 80.0% | 20.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 20.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 40.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.60 | 1.40 |
Home stats use Sion's home record; away stats use Lausanne's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.