🇨🇭 Swiss Super League·Saturday, 29 August 2026·16:00
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Servette | 1.92 | 1.92 |
| Draw | 3.94 | 3.94 |
| Luzern | 3.84 | 3.84 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketServette
51%
Draw
24%
Luzern
25%
Servette 1.88 xGexpected goals1.29 xG Luzern
Servette win 51% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 63% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (11.0%).
Servette score at least twice in 56%; Luzern in 37%.
1–1 11.0%2–1 9.8%2–0 7.4%1–0 7.2%1–2 6.3%2–2 6.3%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.0 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.8 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
rows = Servette goals · columns = Luzern goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score63%
Over 1.5 goals83%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Over 3.5 goals39%
Over 4.5 goals21%
Servette clean sheet27%
Luzern clean sheet15%
Servette score 2+56%
Luzern score 2+37%
Servette score 3+29%
Model vs market
| Source | Servette | Draw | Luzern |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 49% | 24% | 27% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 51% | 24% | 25% |
| Metis Forecast | 51% | 24% | 25% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Recent form
Servette
| 25 Jul | H | vs Basel | 0–1 | L |
| 1 Aug | A | vs Zurich | 1–2 | L |
| 8 Aug | H | vs Grasshoppers | 2–1 | W |
Luzern
| 25 Jul | H | vs Thun | 1–3 | L |
| 2 Aug | A | vs Sion | 0–3 | L |
| 9 Aug | A | vs St. Gallen | 2–2 | D |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Lausanne | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings found.
Model context
| Stat | Servette (Home) | Luzern (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.00 | 3.50 |
Home stats use Servette's home record; away stats use Luzern's away record this season.