Luzern vs Young Boys — Swiss Super League forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Luzern
25%
Draw
21%
Young Boys
54%
Expected goals
1.49–2.15
Luzern · Young Boys
Young Boys win 54% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–2 (10.2%), 1–1 (8.5%), 1–3 (6.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 69% of simulations.
Those three cover 26% of outcomes; the other 75% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Luzern score at least twice in 44%; Young Boys in 64%.
Scoreline distribution
Young Boys goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 5.5 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 3.0 | 8.5 | 10.2 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 2.0 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.6 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: Luzern goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 31% | 23% | 47% |
| Market reference | 25% | 21% | 54% |
| Metis Forecast | 25% | 21% | 54% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Luzern | 3.77 |
| Draw | 4.49 |
| Young Boys | 1.78 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Recent form
Luzern
| 25 Jul | H | vs Thun | 1–3 | L |
| 2 Aug | A | vs Sion | 0–3 | L |
| 9 Aug | A | vs St. Gallen | 2–2 | D |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Lausanne | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Servette | 1–1 | D |
Young Boys
| 26 Jul | H | vs Sion | 4–2 | W |
| 1 Aug | A | vs Thun | 6–0 | W |
| 8 Aug | A | vs Lausanne | 2–2 | D |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Vaduz | 4–2 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Basel | 3–3 | D |
Head to head
| 5 Sept 26 | Young BoysvsLuzern | 3 – 3 |
Luzern: 0W 1D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Luzern (Home · 5 matches) | Young Boys (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 80.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 80.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 40.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.00 | 4.40 |
Home stats use Luzern's home record; away stats use Young Boys's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.