Luzern vs Grasshoppers — Swiss Super League result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 12.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Luzern
57%
pick · result
Draw
21%
Grasshoppers
22%
Final score
5–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Luzern win 56.9% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Luzern win. Expected goals 2.17–1.32 against 5–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–1 (9.7%), 1–1 (9.0%), 2–0 (7.3%). It finished 5–1.
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Luzern
| 25 Jul | H | vs Thun | 1–3 | L |
| 2 Aug | A | vs Sion | 0–3 | L |
| 9 Aug | A | vs St. Gallen | 2–2 | D |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Lausanne | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Servette | 1–1 | D |
Grasshoppers
| 25 Jul | A | vs Lausanne | 1–1 | D |
| 2 Aug | H | vs Lugano | 1–4 | L |
| 8 Aug | A | vs Servette | 1–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Vaduz | 2–5 | L |
| 2 Sept | H | vs St. Gallen | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Luzern (Home · 6 matches) | Grasshoppers (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 83.3% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 16.7% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 3.67 | 3.17 |
Home stats use Luzern's home record; away stats use Grasshoppers's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.