Luzern vs Basel — Swiss Super League result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 13 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 30.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Luzern
45%
top pick
Draw
23%
Basel
31%
result
Final score
2–4
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Basel win 31.4% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Luzern win. Expected goals 1.78–1.54 against 2–4 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (10.2%), 2–1 (10.1%), 1–2 (6.8%). It finished 2–4.
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Luzern
| 25 Jul | H | vs Thun | 1–3 | L |
| 2 Aug | A | vs Sion | 0–3 | L |
| 9 Aug | A | vs St. Gallen | 2–2 | D |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Lausanne | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Servette | 1–1 | D |
Basel
| 25 Jul | A | vs Servette | 1–0 | W |
| 1 Aug | H | vs Lausanne | 0–1 | L |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Thun | 4–2 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Zurich | 2–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Young Boys | 3–3 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Luzern (Home · 6 matches) | Basel (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 83.3% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 83.3% |
| Clean sheet | 16.7% | 16.7% |
| Avg goals | 3.67 | 3.67 |
Home stats use Luzern's home record; away stats use Basel's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.