Lugano vs Young Boys — Swiss Super League result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 12 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 8.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Lugano
43%
top pick
Draw
23%
result
Young Boys
34%
Final score
2–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 22.9% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Lugano win. Expected goals 1.79–1.53 against 2–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (10.1%), 2–1 (8.7%), 1–2 (8.1%). It finished 2–2.
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Lugano
| 26 Jul | H | vs Vaduz | 2–1 | W |
| 2 Aug | A | vs Grasshoppers | 4–1 | W |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Zurich | 5–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Sion | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Sept | H | vs Servette | 1–0 | W |
Young Boys
| 26 Jul | H | vs Sion | 4–2 | W |
| 1 Aug | A | vs Thun | 6–0 | W |
| 8 Aug | A | vs Lausanne | 2–2 | D |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Vaduz | 4–2 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Basel | 3–3 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Lugano (Home · 7 matches) | Young Boys (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 57.1% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 85.7% | 80.0% |
| Clean sheet | 42.9% | 40.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.57 | 4.40 |
Home stats use Lugano's home record; away stats use Young Boys's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.