Lugano vs St. Gallen — Swiss Super League result and pre-match forecast, Wednesday, 16 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 8.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Lugano
47%
pick · result
Draw
23%
St. Gallen
30%
Final score
4–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Lugano win 47.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Lugano win. Expected goals 1.88–1.43 against 4–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (10.3%), 2–1 (9.0%), 1–2 (7.4%). It finished 4–1.
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Lugano
| 26 Jul | H | vs Vaduz | 2–1 | W |
| 2 Aug | A | vs Grasshoppers | 4–1 | W |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Zurich | 5–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Sion | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Sept | H | vs Servette | 1–0 | W |
St. Gallen
| 26 Jul | H | vs Zurich | 2–1 | W |
| 2 Aug | A | vs Vaduz | 3–2 | W |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Luzern | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Thun | 3–4 | L |
| 2 Sept | A | vs Grasshoppers | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Lugano (Home · 7 matches) | St. Gallen (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 57.1% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 85.7% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 42.9% | 16.7% |
| Avg goals | 3.57 | 3.33 |
Home stats use Lugano's home record; away stats use St. Gallen's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.