Lugano vs Basel — Swiss Super League forecast, Sunday, 1 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Lugano
61%
Draw
20%
Basel
19%
Expected goals
2.41–1.23
Lugano · Basel
Lugano win 61% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (8.5%), 2–1 (8.4%), 2–0 (7.4%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 64% of simulations.
Those three cover 24% of outcomes; the other 76% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Lugano win is 2–1 (8.4%).
Lugano score at least twice in 68%; Basel in 35%.
Scoreline distribution
Basel goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.4 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 3.4 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: Lugano goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 64% | 18% | 18% |
| Market reference | 61% | 20% | 19% |
| Metis Forecast | 61% | 20% | 19% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Lugano | 1.58 |
| Draw | 4.68 |
| Basel | 4.77 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 26 Oct · 04:41 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Lugano
| 26 Jul | H | vs Vaduz | 2–1 | W |
| 2 Aug | A | vs Grasshoppers | 4–1 | W |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Zurich | 5–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Sion | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Sept | H | vs Servette | 1–0 | W |
Basel
| 25 Jul | A | vs Servette | 1–0 | W |
| 1 Aug | H | vs Lausanne | 0–1 | L |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Thun | 4–2 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Zurich | 2–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Young Boys | 3–3 | D |
Head to head
| 6 Sept 26 | BaselvsLugano | 1 – 3 |
Lugano: 1W 0D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Lugano (Home · 6 matches) | Basel (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 83.3% | 80.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.67 | 3.80 |
Home stats use Lugano's home record; away stats use Basel's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.