Lausanne vs Lugano — Swiss Super League forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Lausanne
25%
Draw
23%
Lugano
52%
Expected goals
1.14–1.73
Lausanne · Lugano
Lugano win 52% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.9%), 1–2 (10.3%), 0–1 (9.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Lugano win is 1–2 (10.3%).
Lausanne score at least twice in 32%; Lugano in 52%.
Scoreline distribution
Lugano goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.5 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.9 | 10.3 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.5 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Lausanne goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 26% | 26% | 48% |
| Market reference | 25% | 23% | 52% |
| Metis Forecast | 25% | 23% | 52% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lausanne | 3.82 | 4.00 | 3.50 | 3.71 | 3.70 | 3.80 | 3.70 | 3.72 | 3.38 | 4.00 Bet365 |
| Draw | 4.14 | 3.70 | 3.75 | 3.84 | 3.75 | 3.80 | 3.70 | 3.84 | 3.38 | 4.14 Pinnacle |
| Lugano | 1.88 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.88 | 1.85 | 1.80 | 1.83 | 1.86 | 1.88 Pinnacle |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Lausanne
| 25 Jul | H | vs Grasshoppers | 1–1 | D |
| 1 Aug | A | vs Basel | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Aug | H | vs Young Boys | 2–2 | D |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Luzern | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Zurich | 2–3 | L |
Lugano
| 26 Jul | H | vs Vaduz | 2–1 | W |
| 2 Aug | A | vs Grasshoppers | 4–1 | W |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Zurich | 5–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Sion | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Sept | H | vs Servette | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Lausanne (Home · 5 matches) | Lugano (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.20 | 4.00 |
Home stats use Lausanne's home record; away stats use Lugano's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.