Lausanne vs Lugano — Swiss Super League result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 6.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Lausanne
26%
Draw
23%
Lugano
51%
pick · result
Final score
0–4
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Lugano win 51.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Lugano win. Expected goals 1.14–1.70 against 0–4 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (10.9%), 1–2 (10.2%), 0–1 (9.6%). It finished 0–4.
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Lausanne
| 25 Jul | H | vs Grasshoppers | 1–1 | D |
| 1 Aug | A | vs Basel | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Aug | H | vs Young Boys | 2–2 | D |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Luzern | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Zurich | 2–3 | L |
Lugano
| 26 Jul | H | vs Vaduz | 2–1 | W |
| 2 Aug | A | vs Grasshoppers | 4–1 | W |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Zurich | 5–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Sion | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Sept | H | vs Servette | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Lausanne (Home · 6 matches) | Lugano (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.17 | 4.20 |
Home stats use Lausanne's home record; away stats use Lugano's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.