Basel vs St. Gallen — Swiss Super League forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Basel
39%
Draw
23%
St. Gallen
37%
Expected goals
1.70–1.67
Basel · St. Gallen
Basel win 39% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.1%), 2–1 (8.6%), 1–2 (8.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 67% of simulations.
Those three cover 27% of outcomes; the other 73% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Basel score at least twice in 51%; St. Gallen in 50%.
Scoreline distribution
St. Gallen goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.1 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.6 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: Basel goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 38% | 24% | 38% |
| Market reference | 39% | 23% | 37% |
| Metis Forecast | 39% | 23% | 37% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Basel | 2.48 | 2.40 | 2.45 | 2.42 | 2.45 | 2.40 | 2.38 | 2.42 | 2.29 | 2.48 Pinnacle |
| Draw | 4.11 | 4.00 | 3.75 | 3.82 | 3.85 | 4.00 | 3.75 | 3.82 | 3.56 | 4.11 Pinnacle |
| St. Gallen | 2.59 | 2.50 | 2.45 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.40 | 2.45 | 2.50 | 2.43 | 2.59 Pinnacle |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Basel
| 25 Jul | A | vs Servette | 1–0 | W |
| 1 Aug | H | vs Lausanne | 0–1 | L |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Thun | 4–2 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Zurich | 2–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Young Boys | 3–3 | D |
St. Gallen
| 26 Jul | H | vs Zurich | 2–1 | W |
| 2 Aug | A | vs Vaduz | 3–2 | W |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Luzern | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Thun | 3–4 | L |
| 2 Sept | A | vs Grasshoppers | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Basel (Home · 5 matches) | St. Gallen (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 80.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.60 | 3.60 |
Home stats use Basel's home record; away stats use St. Gallen's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.