Basel vs Lugano — Swiss Super League result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 6 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Independent model — no market priceFrozen as published · 6.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Basel
38%
top pick
Draw
26%
Lugano
37%
result
Final score
1–3
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Lugano win 36.7% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Basel win. Expected goals 1.56–1.54 against 1–3 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.7%), 2–1 (8.5%), 1–2 (8.3%). It finished 1–3.
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Basel
| 25 Jul | A | vs Servette | 1–0 | W |
| 1 Aug | H | vs Lausanne | 0–1 | L |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Thun | 4–2 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Zurich | 2–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Young Boys | 3–3 | D |
Lugano
| 26 Jul | H | vs Vaduz | 2–1 | W |
| 2 Aug | A | vs Grasshoppers | 4–1 | W |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Zurich | 5–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Sion | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Sept | H | vs Servette | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Basel (Home · 6 matches) | Lugano (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 16.7% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 4.20 |
Home stats use Basel's home record; away stats use Lugano's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.