Basel vs Grasshoppers — Swiss Super League forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Basel
58%
Draw
20%
Grasshoppers
21%
Expected goals
2.25–1.27
Basel · Grasshoppers
Basel win 58% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–1 (9.0%), 1–1 (8.9%), 2–0 (7.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 64% of simulations.
Those three cover 25% of outcomes; the other 75% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Basel score at least twice in 65%; Grasshoppers in 36%.
Scoreline distribution
Grasshoppers goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: Basel goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 62% | 20% | 18% |
| Market reference | 58% | 20% | 21% |
| Metis Forecast | 58% | 20% | 21% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Basel
| 25 Jul | A | vs Servette | 1–0 | W |
| 1 Aug | H | vs Lausanne | 0–1 | L |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Thun | 4–2 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Zurich | 2–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Young Boys | 3–3 | D |
Grasshoppers
| 25 Jul | A | vs Lausanne | 1–1 | D |
| 2 Aug | H | vs Lugano | 1–4 | L |
| 8 Aug | A | vs Servette | 1–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Vaduz | 2–5 | L |
| 2 Sept | H | vs St. Gallen | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Basel (Home · 5 matches) | Grasshoppers (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 80.0% | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.60 | 3.80 |
Home stats use Basel's home record; away stats use Grasshoppers's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.