Vasteras SK vs Sirius — Swedish Allsvenskan result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 5 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 7.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Vasteras SK
25%
Draw
23%
Sirius
52%
pick · result
Final score
0–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Sirius win 52.0% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Sirius win. Expected goals 1.28–1.91 against 0–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (10.6%), 1–2 (10.0%), 0–2 (7.6%). It finished 0–1.
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Vasteras SK
| 5 Apr | A | vs Kalmar | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Apr | H | vs Elfsborg | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Apr | A | vs Sirius | 1–4 | L |
| 22 Apr | H | vs Hacken | 3–3 | D |
| 26 Apr | A | vs Brommapojkarna | 2–1 | W |
Sirius
| 4 Apr | A | vs Degerfors | 3–0 | W |
| 13 Apr | H | vs Hammarby | 2–0 | W |
| 18 Apr | H | vs Vasteras SK | 4–1 | W |
| 23 Apr | A | vs Malmo FF | 3–2 | W |
| 27 Apr | A | vs Hacken | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Vasteras SK (Home · 14 matches) | Sirius (Away · 13 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 35.7% | 53.8% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 28.6% | 69.2% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 38.5% |
| Avg goals | 2.50 | 3.31 |
Home stats use Vasteras SK's home record; away stats use Sirius's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.