Vasteras SK vs Malmo FF — Swedish Allsvenskan result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 9.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Vasteras SK
30%
result
Draw
25%
Malmo FF
45%
top pick
Final score
2–0
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Vasteras SK win 29.8% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Malmo FF win. Expected goals 1.16–1.51 against 2–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.0%), 0–1 (9.7%), 1–2 (9.2%). It finished 2–0.
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Vasteras SK
| 5 Apr | A | vs Kalmar | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Apr | H | vs Elfsborg | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Apr | A | vs Sirius | 1–4 | L |
| 22 Apr | H | vs Hacken | 3–3 | D |
| 26 Apr | A | vs Brommapojkarna | 2–1 | W |
Malmo FF
| 5 Apr | A | vs Orgryte | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Apr | H | vs GAIS | 3–1 | W |
| 17 Apr | A | vs Djurgarden | 1–0 | W |
| 23 Apr | H | vs Sirius | 2–3 | L |
| 27 Apr | A | vs AIK | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Vasteras SK (Home · 14 matches) | Malmo FF (Away · 13 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 35.7% | 38.5% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 28.6% | 38.5% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 53.8% |
| Avg goals | 2.50 | 2.23 |
Home stats use Vasteras SK's home record; away stats use Malmo FF's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.