Vasteras SK vs Halmstad — Swedish Allsvenskan forecast, Friday, 23 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Vasteras SK
57%
Draw
23%
Halmstad
20%
Expected goals
1.78–0.93
Vasteras SK · Halmstad
Vasteras SK win 57% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–0 (11.2%), 1–1 (11.0%), 2–0 (10.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 51% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Vasteras SK score at least twice in 53%; Halmstad in 24%.
Scoreline distribution
Halmstad goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.0 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Vasteras SK goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 57% | 25% | 18% |
| Market reference | 57% | 23% | 20% |
| Metis Forecast | 57% | 23% | 20% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Vasteras SK | 1.68 |
| Draw | 4.06 |
| Halmstad | 4.72 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Vasteras SK
| 5 Apr | A | vs Kalmar | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Apr | H | vs Elfsborg | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Apr | A | vs Sirius | 1–4 | L |
| 22 Apr | H | vs Hacken | 3–3 | D |
| 26 Apr | A | vs Brommapojkarna | 2–1 | W |
Halmstad
| 5 Apr | A | vs AIK | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Apr | H | vs Degerfors | 0–3 | L |
| 18 Apr | H | vs Goteborg | 1–1 | D |
| 22 Apr | A | vs Hammarby | 1–1 | D |
| 27 Apr | A | vs Mjallby | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
| 4 Jul 26 | HalmstadvsVasteras SK | 1 – 3 |
Vasteras SK: 1W 0D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Vasteras SK (Home · 12 matches) | Halmstad (Away · 12 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 33.3% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 25.0% | 41.7% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.58 | 2.75 |
Home stats use Vasteras SK's home record; away stats use Halmstad's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.