🇸🇪 Swedish Allsvenskan·Monday, 31 August 2026·17:00
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Sirius | 1.93 | 1.93 |
| Draw | 4.07 | 4.07 |
| Malmo FF | 3.37 | 3.37 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketSirius
49%
Draw
23%
Malmo FF
28%
Sirius 1.70 xGexpected goals1.24 xG Malmo FF
Sirius win 49% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 58% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (10.7%).
Sirius score at least twice in 51%; Malmo FF in 35%.
1–1 10.7%2–1 10.3%1–0 8.9%2–0 8.0%1–2 6.9%0–1 5.8%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 10.7 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 10.2 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
rows = Sirius goals · columns = Malmo FF goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score58%
Over 1.5 goals80%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Over 3.5 goals33%
Over 4.5 goals17%
Sirius clean sheet29%
Malmo FF clean sheet18%
Sirius score 2+51%
Malmo FF score 2+35%
Sirius score 3+24%
Model vs market
| Source | Sirius | Draw | Malmo FF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 45% | 26% | 29% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 49% | 23% | 28% |
| Metis Forecast | 49% | 23% | 28% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Sirius
| 4 Apr | A | vs Degerfors | 3–0 | W |
| 13 Apr | H | vs Hammarby | 2–0 | W |
| 18 Apr | H | vs Vasteras SK | 4–1 | W |
| 23 Apr | A | vs Malmo FF | 3–2 | W |
| 27 Apr | A | vs Hacken | 2–2 | D |
Malmo FF
| 5 Apr | A | vs Orgryte | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Apr | H | vs GAIS | 3–1 | W |
| 17 Apr | A | vs Djurgarden | 1–0 | W |
| 23 Apr | H | vs Sirius | 2–3 | L |
| 27 Apr | A | vs AIK | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
| 23 Apr 26 | Malmo FFvsSirius | 2 – 3 |
Sirius: 1W 0D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Sirius (Home) | Malmo FF (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 55.6% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 77.8% | 44.4% |
| Clean sheet | 22.2% | 44.4% |
| Avg goals | 4.11 | 2.56 |
Home stats use Sirius's home record; away stats use Malmo FF's away record this season.