Sirius vs Malmo FF — Swedish Allsvenskan result and pre-match forecast, Monday, 31 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 13.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Sirius
52%
top pick
Draw
22%
Malmo FF
26%
result
Final score
0–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Malmo FF win 26.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Sirius win. Expected goals 1.71–1.22 against 0–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–1 (11.5%), 1–1 (10.2%), 1–0 (10.0%). It finished 0–1.
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Sirius
| 4 Apr | A | vs Degerfors | 3–0 | W |
| 13 Apr | H | vs Hammarby | 2–0 | W |
| 18 Apr | H | vs Vasteras SK | 4–1 | W |
| 23 Apr | A | vs Malmo FF | 3–2 | W |
| 27 Apr | A | vs Hacken | 2–2 | D |
Malmo FF
| 5 Apr | A | vs Orgryte | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Apr | H | vs GAIS | 3–1 | W |
| 17 Apr | A | vs Djurgarden | 1–0 | W |
| 23 Apr | H | vs Sirius | 2–3 | L |
| 27 Apr | A | vs AIK | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Sirius (Home · 11 matches) | Malmo FF (Away · 11 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 63.6% | 36.4% |
| Clean sheet | 27.3% | 45.5% |
| Avg goals | 3.64 | 2.36 |
Home stats use Sirius's home record; away stats use Malmo FF's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.