Sirius vs Degerfors — Swedish Allsvenskan result and pre-match forecast, Monday, 14 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 8.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Sirius
67%
pick · result
Draw
20%
Degerfors
13%
Final score
2–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Sirius win 67.0% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Sirius win. Expected goals 2.43–0.94 against 2–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–0 (9.7%), 1–1 (9.2%), 2–1 (8.4%). It finished 2–0 — one of them.
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Sirius
| 4 Apr | A | vs Degerfors | 3–0 | W |
| 13 Apr | H | vs Hammarby | 2–0 | W |
| 18 Apr | H | vs Vasteras SK | 4–1 | W |
| 23 Apr | A | vs Malmo FF | 3–2 | W |
| 27 Apr | A | vs Hacken | 2–2 | D |
Degerfors
| 4 Apr | H | vs Sirius | 0–3 | L |
| 12 Apr | A | vs Halmstad | 3–0 | W |
| 17 Apr | H | vs Elfsborg | 0–1 | L |
| 23 Apr | H | vs AIK | 2–1 | W |
| 27 Apr | A | vs Orgryte | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Sirius (Home · 14 matches) | Degerfors (Away · 14 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 57.1% | 42.9% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 64.3% | 42.9% |
| Clean sheet | 28.6% | 7.1% |
| Avg goals | 3.50 | 2.57 |
Home stats use Sirius's home record; away stats use Degerfors's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.