Sirius vs AIK — Swedish Allsvenskan forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Independent model — no market priceModel updated
Sirius
58%
Draw
23%
AIK
19%
Expected goals
1.97–1.06
Sirius · AIK
Sirius win 58% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.9%), 2–1 (9.9%), 2–0 (9.4%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Sirius win is 2–1 (9.9%).
Sirius score at least twice in 58%; AIK in 29%.
Scoreline distribution
AIK goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 10.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Sirius goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Sirius | 1.57 |
| Draw | 4.53 |
| AIK | 4.89 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
What changed overnight?
vs previous runxG 2.03–1.03 → 1.97–1.06
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Sirius
| 4 Apr | A | vs Degerfors | 3–0 | W |
| 13 Apr | H | vs Hammarby | 2–0 | W |
| 18 Apr | H | vs Vasteras SK | 4–1 | W |
| 23 Apr | A | vs Malmo FF | 3–2 | W |
| 27 Apr | A | vs Hacken | 2–2 | D |
AIK
| 5 Apr | H | vs Halmstad | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Apr | A | vs Brommapojkarna | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Apr | H | vs Kalmar | 1–0 | W |
| 23 Apr | A | vs Degerfors | 1–2 | L |
| 27 Apr | H | vs Malmo FF | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
| 30 May 26 | AIKvsSirius | 0 – 3 |
Sirius: 1W 0D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Sirius (Home · 12 matches) | AIK (Away · 12 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 58.3% | 83.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 16.7% |
| Avg goals | 3.67 | 2.83 |
Home stats use Sirius's home record; away stats use AIK's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.