Orgryte vs Vasteras SK — Swedish Allsvenskan forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Orgryte
33%
Draw
25%
Vasteras SK
42%
Expected goals
1.35–1.56
Orgryte · Vasteras SK
Vasteras SK win 42% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.7%), 1–2 (8.9%), 2–1 (8.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 59% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Orgryte score at least twice in 39%; Vasteras SK in 46%.
Scoreline distribution
Vasteras SK goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.7 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.7 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Orgryte goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 31% | 26% | 43% |
| Market reference | 33% | 25% | 42% |
| Metis Forecast | 33% | 25% | 42% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Orgryte | 2.85 |
| Draw | 3.75 |
| Vasteras SK | 2.28 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Orgryte
| 5 Apr | H | vs Malmo FF | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Apr | A | vs Mjallby | 2–0 | W |
| 18 Apr | A | vs Hammarby | 1–8 | L |
| 22 Apr | H | vs Brommapojkarna | 1–2 | L |
| 27 Apr | H | vs Degerfors | 1–1 | D |
Vasteras SK
| 5 Apr | A | vs Kalmar | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Apr | H | vs Elfsborg | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Apr | A | vs Sirius | 1–4 | L |
| 22 Apr | H | vs Hacken | 3–3 | D |
| 26 Apr | A | vs Brommapojkarna | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
| 24 Jul 26 | Vasteras SKvsOrgryte | 2 – 0 |
Orgryte: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Orgryte (Home · 13 matches) | Vasteras SK (Away · 13 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 92.3% | 46.2% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 61.5% | 76.9% |
| Clean sheet | 7.7% | 23.1% |
| Avg goals | 3.54 | 3.31 |
Home stats use Orgryte's home record; away stats use Vasteras SK's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.