Orgryte vs Sirius — Swedish Allsvenskan result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 11.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Orgryte
17%
Draw
20%
Sirius
62%
pick · result
Final score
1–2
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Sirius win 62.4% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Sirius win. Expected goals 1.04–2.07 against 1–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–2 (10.9%), 0–2 (9.9%), 1–1 (9.5%). It finished 1–2 — one of them.
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Orgryte
| 5 Apr | H | vs Malmo FF | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Apr | A | vs Mjallby | 2–0 | W |
| 18 Apr | A | vs Hammarby | 1–8 | L |
| 22 Apr | H | vs Brommapojkarna | 1–2 | L |
| 27 Apr | H | vs Degerfors | 1–1 | D |
Sirius
| 4 Apr | A | vs Degerfors | 3–0 | W |
| 13 Apr | H | vs Hammarby | 2–0 | W |
| 18 Apr | H | vs Vasteras SK | 4–1 | W |
| 23 Apr | A | vs Malmo FF | 3–2 | W |
| 27 Apr | A | vs Hacken | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Orgryte (Home · 13 matches) | Sirius (Away · 13 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 92.3% | 53.8% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 61.5% | 69.2% |
| Clean sheet | 7.7% | 38.5% |
| Avg goals | 3.54 | 3.31 |
Home stats use Orgryte's home record; away stats use Sirius's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.