Orgryte vs Mjallby — Swedish Allsvenskan forecast, Thursday, 29 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Orgryte
25%
Draw
25%
Mjallby
51%
Expected goals
1.19–1.63
Orgryte · Mjallby
Mjallby win 51% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–2 (11.7%), 1–1 (11.7%), 0–1 (10.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
Those three cover 34% of outcomes; the other 66% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Orgryte score at least twice in 33%; Mjallby in 50%.
Scoreline distribution
Mjallby goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 10.7 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 11.7 | 11.7 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Orgryte goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 37% | 27% | 36% |
| Market reference | 25% | 25% | 51% |
| Metis Forecast | 25% | 25% | 51% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Orgryte
| 5 Apr | H | vs Malmo FF | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Apr | A | vs Mjallby | 2–0 | W |
| 18 Apr | A | vs Hammarby | 1–8 | L |
| 22 Apr | H | vs Brommapojkarna | 1–2 | L |
| 27 Apr | H | vs Degerfors | 1–1 | D |
Mjallby
| 4 Apr | A | vs Hammarby | 0–3 | L |
| 11 Apr | H | vs Orgryte | 0–2 | L |
| 18 Apr | H | vs Brommapojkarna | 3–0 | W |
| 23 Apr | A | vs GAIS | 0–0 | D |
| 27 Apr | H | vs Halmstad | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Orgryte (Home · 12 matches) | Mjallby (Away · 12 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 91.7% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 58.3% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 8.3% | 8.3% |
| Avg goals | 3.58 | 3.08 |
Home stats use Orgryte's home record; away stats use Mjallby's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.