Orgryte vs Hammarby — Swedish Allsvenskan result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 6 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 4.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Orgryte
7%
Draw
12%
result
Hammarby
81%
top pick
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 12.2% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Hammarby win. Expected goals 0.94–2.62 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–2 (12.8%), 0–2 (11.0%), 1–3 (9.6%). It finished 1–1.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Orgryte
| 5 Apr | H | vs Malmo FF | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Apr | A | vs Mjallby | 2–0 | W |
| 18 Apr | A | vs Hammarby | 1–8 | L |
| 22 Apr | H | vs Brommapojkarna | 1–2 | L |
| 27 Apr | H | vs Degerfors | 1–1 | D |
Hammarby
| 4 Apr | H | vs Mjallby | 3–0 | W |
| 13 Apr | A | vs Sirius | 0–2 | L |
| 18 Apr | H | vs Orgryte | 8–1 | W |
| 22 Apr | H | vs Halmstad | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Apr | A | vs Djurgarden | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Orgryte (Home · 13 matches) | Hammarby (Away · 14 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 92.3% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 61.5% | 35.7% |
| Clean sheet | 7.7% | 35.7% |
| Avg goals | 3.54 | 2.50 |
Home stats use Orgryte's home record; away stats use Hammarby's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.