Mjallby vs Hammarby — Swedish Allsvenskan forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Mjallby
16%
Draw
21%
Hammarby
63%
Expected goals
0.93–2.04
Mjallby · Hammarby
Hammarby win 63% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 0–2 (10.9%), 1–2 (10.3%), 0–1 (10.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 53% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Mjallby score at least twice in 24%; Hammarby in 61%.
Scoreline distribution
Hammarby goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 10.1 | 10.9 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 2.1 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 9.9 | 10.3 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Mjallby goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 16% | 23% | 61% |
| Market reference | 16% | 21% | 63% |
| Metis Forecast | 16% | 21% | 63% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Mjallby | 5.69 |
| Draw | 4.39 |
| Hammarby | 1.52 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Mjallby
| 4 Apr | A | vs Hammarby | 0–3 | L |
| 11 Apr | H | vs Orgryte | 0–2 | L |
| 18 Apr | H | vs Brommapojkarna | 3–0 | W |
| 23 Apr | A | vs GAIS | 0–0 | D |
| 27 Apr | H | vs Halmstad | 2–0 | W |
Hammarby
| 4 Apr | H | vs Mjallby | 3–0 | W |
| 13 Apr | A | vs Sirius | 0–2 | L |
| 18 Apr | H | vs Orgryte | 8–1 | W |
| 22 Apr | H | vs Halmstad | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Apr | A | vs Djurgarden | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 4 Apr 26 | HammarbyvsMjallby | 3 – 0 |
Mjallby: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Mjallby (Home · 12 matches) | Hammarby (Away · 12 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 33.3% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 41.7% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 2.58 | 2.50 |
Home stats use Mjallby's home record; away stats use Hammarby's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.